November FAST FACTS

Each month, we scrutinize the housing data in FAST FACTS looking for a number that has changed significantly. If we find one, our task is to figure out why it changed and what it means. This year, we have seen significant numerical changes on only three occasions:

1. In June 2010 we saw 983 new home closings – - about double the 515 in May and the 408 in July. The reason: The expiration of the $8,000 home buyers tax credit was June 30th.

2. This month we saw Short Sales listings in the local MLS break the 50% mark for the first time. The reason: Banks are showing a preference for the Short Sale over the Foreclosure Sale.

3. This month we see 951 Bank Foreclosures, less the half of the 2,195 we saw in October, in fact, less than half of the 1,900 we’ve averaged for the first ten months of this year. The reason: the much ballyhooed but short lived foreclosure moratorium highlighted by the “robo-signing” scandal which broke in September and October.

Does that mean that we can expect bank foreclosures to snap back to their normal level of about 1,900 next month? Probably not, because of three factors:

1. It’s the Christmas season, and apparently even the Scrooge Banks have some heart . . . December 2009’s 1,325 foreclosures were the fewest for any month that year.

2. Some lingering, left-over robo-signing effect from previous months.

3. But the main reason: banks are finally realizing that they are better off pursuing short sales than they are pursuing foreclosures.

According to Fitch Ratings, “Loss severities are expected to increase between 5% and 10% on residential mortgage-backed securities in 2011 as loss mitigation costs and foreclosure expenses go up.” This is a national trend, and we believe it is part of the solution to our current housing crisis.

Just look at November’s numbers regarding types of sales in the existing homes market:

SHORT SALES 824 $125,000

AUCTION SALES 308 $91,000

REO SALES 1,597 $111,000

NON-DISTRESS 1,187 $119,900

Notice this; not only did Short Sales fetch more money than REO sales, they also sold for more than the Non-Distress (Normal) sale! When we look at a YTD comparison, we see Short Sales at a median price of $123,000 and Normal Sales at $125,000.

Here’s what’s happening, in our opinion; The fact that the majority (70%) of all sales are in the Distress Sale category dictates the pricing for ALL categories. This is unfortunate for the non-distress homeowner who is trying to sell his home, but the “inconvenient truth” here is that there are many homes for sale today in Las Vegas (78% of them vacant) and the buyer doesn’t care who owns it, or why they are selling it. All the buyer knows is that he can buy the typical home in Las Vegas today for $115,000 (the median price of all types of resale homes last month.)

Because we see another year or two of distress properties coming on the market (Remember 16% of homeowners are more than 60 days delinquent on their mortgage payment and 75% are underwater) prices are likely to remain suppressed for the foreseeable future.

However, we predicted at last January’s Crystal Ball Seminar that we “Would NOT see a tsunami of foreclosures” in 2010, and that has proved to be the case. We noted that the banks at that time appeared RELUCTANT to foreclose on homes expeditiously, and that many people where still living in their homes many months even a year or more after they stopped making their payments. Why? Because banks sensed the very precarious nature of the housing crisis. They realized that aggressively proceeding with foreclosing as their first remedy would be self-defeating, driving prices down both lower and faster. That’s the reasoning underlying the short sale. Leave the homeowner in the home, let him maintain the home, and help him out of his underwater condition.

All of leads us to this question, “If the banks today are willing to adopt a Short Sale philosophy (as opposed to a Foreclosure mentality) so that a buyer can purchase the home for less money than is owed against it, why are the unwilling to do (in effect) the same thing for the homeowner himself via an outright principle reduction?”

For the answer to this and other mysteries of the Las Vegas housing market, come to the Jan 20, 2011 Crystal Ball Seminar for only $29. Coffee bar and registration from 7:30 – 8:15 am, presentations from 8:15 – 10:00 am at View 215.

We wish you and yours a happy holiday season and a better New Year!

Respectfully Submitted,

Larry Murphy and Steve Bottfeld

SalesTraq™ and Marketing Solutions

©SalesTraq 2010

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The Future Of Las Vegas Real Estate

Las Vegas Real Estate Market

Las Vegas Real Estate Market

With great pleasure I once again present Fast Facts courtesy of Larry Murphy and Steve Bottfeld of SalesTraq. Larry and Steve always do a fantastic job analyzing the Market and all of us have reaped great benefit from the insight they have provided. You can visit their Nevada website here; CrystalBallSeminars

So now I present;
December’s Fast Facts

The gradual stabilization of the Las Vegas real estate market was the theme of December’s Fast Facts data.

1. Sales continued to gain strength;

2. Inventory continued to decline; and

3. Prices remained relatively stable.

Perhaps the most striking December statistic was that the number of foreclosures was less than most were expecting.

Here are the details:

SALES:

—>Resales are up BIG!

—>New Home sales are trending upward

The number of existing homes sold in 2009 was 48,075, a 57% increase over 2008 and the third highest total in history. The 4,502 sales in December’s made it the second highest month of the year.

The number of new homes sold in 2009 was 5,184, a drop of 48% from last year. However, new home sales in December totaled 517, the second highest month of the year. In fact, new home sales in the 4th quarter accounted for nearly 31% of the annual total. While the numbers are still small, the trend direction for new homes sales appears to be up.

INVENTORY:

—>All inventory elements continue to decline.

The number of foreclosures in inventory (the so-called “invisible inventory”) slid to 11,248 in December. That’s the lowest total since March 2008. The reason that inventory is declining is simple:

In six of the last eight months, the number of foreclosures sold was larger than the number of foreclosures created.

The 10,262 homes in resale inventory in December represents just 2.6 months of supply. December’s resale inventory is the second lowest total since March, 2005.

New home permits totaled just 3,766 for the year, down 32% from 2008. December’s total of 349 was a little above average.

The number of active new home subdivisions increased by two to reach a total of 230 in December. The December increase in new home subdivisions is the first since July 2007.

PRICES

—>New Home Prices are up.

—>Resale prices declined in December

The median price of a new home jumped nearly $12,000 from November to December (+5.8%). The month’s median price of $210,000 was very close to the median closing price for the year of $212,883.

Resale prices remained in their narrow range, dropping from $125,000 last month to $120,000 in December. Existing home prices have bounced between those two numbers since April.

A little more than half (51%) of existing home closings in December were bank-owned homes with a median closing price of $115,500. The other 49% of existing home closings boasted a median closing price of $125,000.

WHAT DOES IT MEAN?

December’s data offers three tantalizing questions:

1. Is Las Vegas real estate beginning to “recover?”

2. If so, how long before the impact of the recovery is felt on pricing?

3. What numbers from 2009 will change the way we look at 2010?

—>These three questions are among the many we will answer at Thursday morning’s Crystal Ball Seminar to be held at the Suncoast Hotel (note the new location). Among the featured speakers will be Rita Brandon, Senior Vice President with Newland Communities who will present an in-depth look at Symphony Park.

To register, please go to www.crystalballseminars.com.

We look forward to seeing you there!

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Time Magazine quotes David Brownell

Las Vegas real estate

Las Vegas 2010

Today Time Magazine quoted David Brownell;
By T.R. Witcher / Las Vegas

Jim Murren waited five years to welcome the world to CityCenter, the 18 million–sq.-ft., $8.5 billion resort complex that opened this week in the heart of the Las Vegas Strip. When he took over as CEO of MGM Mirage a year ago, he was a youthful 47. “I’m now an old 48,” he says, and he’s got the gray hairs to prove it. That’s because CityCenter came within a whisker of not opening at all, even as it was billed the most expensive private construction project in American history and thought of among locals as a beacon of the city’s resurgence from the depths of recession.
Early this year, the company was in the grip of what Murren calls an “intense, very dire liquidity crisis.” MGM Mirage’s joint partner on CityCenter, the Dubai World subsidiary Infinity World, had sued MGM Mirage and stopped putting money into the project. Unable to find other sources of capital, the casino company was left with two choices: walk away from CityCenter or try to work out a deal with MGM Mirage’s bankers.
It fell to Murren to convince the bankers that the project was worth saving — but things had gotten so touchy that he had to ask Nevada’s congressional delegation, led by Senate majority leader Harry Reid, to call the CEOs of MGM’s banking partners to ask them to return Murren’s calls.
Even that almost wasn’t enough. The company owed a $200 million payment to CityCenter’s contractor, Perini Construction. It was due on a Friday in March. Murren spent that day on a conference call with the company’s banks, trying to persuade them to lend MGM the funds until it could resolve its problems with Dubai. Murren could promise them nothing. “We don’t know the outcome of CityCenter. We don’t know how we’re going to get there.”
MGM Mirage had already prepared its bankruptcy papers for the project and rented construction fencing to seal off the complex. As Murren waited for the decision in his office, TV crews circled overheard in helicopters, catching footage of a project widely rumored to be failing.
On March 27, the consortium of banks approved the loan by the narrowest of margins — 50.43%. It proved to be the first step in putting CityCenter back in business. Had it gone under, Murren says, it’s “very possible” MGM Mirage would have been brought down too. And the financially reeling state of Nevada, which received so much of its revenue from gaming, would be in “a tremendously damaged position, more so than even we had been this year.” Murren calls it the most challenging time of his life — “Had I known we would have survived, I might have enjoyed a bit of it.”
Now, of course, he looks like he’s enjoying this week as his playground of smart-suited corporate glass and steel glitters on the Las Vegas skyline. The mood this week in the city is upbeat as fireworks and a multitude of parties have marked the opening of Aria, CityCenter’s central casino-hotel. (A retail mall, Crystals, opened early this month, along with a Mandarin Oriental hotel and a condo-hotel called Vdara. Three more towers are still in mid-construction.)
But the question remains whether CityCenter will help spur a rebound in the city — the common wisdom in Las Vegas is that new supply creates demand — or the addition of more than 4,000 new hotel rooms will depress an already oversupplied market. Murren describes it as the “stimulus package of all time for this community,” pointing to the 12,000 jobs CityCenter has created. Expectedly, he’s bullish that CityCenter will lure new visitors to Vegas. “There’s no doubt in my mind that more people will come to Las Vegas next year than this year.”
In the short term, though, Grant Govertsen, a partner and analyst with Union Gaming Group, says the “pool grows bigger, but it won’t grow enough to maintain footing for all the properties. You’ll see a hit at some of the other properties.” Nevertheless, Govertsen also believes visitor growth will rise next year and expects a modest up-tick in the city’s revenue per available room, which could help the city absorb the new inventory.
But no one is expecting a fast turnaround. Indeed, as Aria is opening, the venerable Binion’s Gambling Hall downtown has shut down, and the Sahara just announced plans to temporarily close rooms in two of its three towers. One of the early selling points of CityCenter was that a slate of condos was planned to give the project some semblance of urbane flair. But the high-rise-condo market is in dire shape. Murren says MGM Mirage has 50% of its condos under contract, but it also recently announced a 30% price reduction to lure in new buyers as well a financing package to help buyers afford to close the deal.
Real estate broker David Brownell says a 30% discount might not be enough. Condos around the city that were selling for between $500,000 and $750,000 in 2004 are selling today for less than $300,000. Brownell says if he had marketing money to spend, “one of the last places I would think of trying to invest it is promoting [condos at] CityCenter. I don’t think there’s a great demand for it.”
Still, a cautious optimism has taken hold. In the airy, triumphant lobby of Aria, Murren notes, “Nothing gets close to the immense amount of gratitude and pride I have about this.”
Parts of the project have had bad luck. The Harmon boutique hotel, a victim of construction defects, won’t be finished until the end of 2010. But the opening of Aria is a significant achievement, signifying the end of an era in Vegas. The days of visionary auteurs bringing extravagant casino dreams to eager banks are over. Land is too expensive if you don’t already own it. Banks are reticent to lend to developers who lack land equity and plenty of cold hard cash. MGM Mirage owns a larger parcel than CityCenter a few miles north of it on the Strip. It’s unlikely the company will attempt a sequel. “I think people will quickly come to a conclusion that no one will ever top this,” Murren says. “We’ve delivered in excess of people’s expectations.”

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