Mortgage Market | Las Vegas Now

Here is an excerpt from guest author Brad Malkin, briefly discussing several key points in the Market;

Last Week; a slight increase in long term interest rates, but the larger jump in rates was at the short to middle of the curve. In the wider perspective the rate markets are relatively calm, the drivers last week were the continuing concerns over sovereign debt problem in Greece and concerns other European countries may suffer the same fate, having to cut spending more than possible to avoid defaulting on its debt payments. Not just Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy are struggling with the same problems; so far however they haven’t slid to the level of Greece’s debts. The EU and IMF eventually will step up and keep Greece from defaulting but the path to there from here is filled with daily fears that keep investors worried. Last week the housing data was for March surprised, especially new home sales that jumped 27% with upward revisions for Jan and Feb; the homebuyers tax credit driving buyers to new homes and less to existing homes which were still strong at +6.8%.

This week; two points to focus on. Starting Monday afternoon Treasury will be busy borrowing; $11B 5 yr inflation indexed notes will be auctioned on Monday. Treasury will hit the borrowing window Tuesday with $44B of 2 yr notes, Wednesday for $42B of 5 yr notes and Thursday $32B of 7 yr notes. The borrowing is expected to be well bid by investors but will keep a lid on any rallies in the treasury markets until at least mid-week after the demand for the early auctions are measured. The other key focus this week; the FOMC meeting beginning on Tuesday and concluding Wednesday afternoon with that policy statement that is sliced and diced for clues as to its meaning for future rates. One discussion will center on the Fed’s balance sheet that has ballooned to over $2T; there were a number of FOMC and Fed officials past and present that want the Fed to begin selling those assets, key to the asset sales is the $1.25T of MBSs the Fed bought in the past year. Although we do not expect the Fed would sell MBSs at amounts that would drive mortgage rates higher, how the debate goes will be interesting; problem is we won’t know much about it until the FOMC minutes are released in three weeks. Rate markets this week will likely be under a little pressure all week with supply and continual improvement in the equity markets.

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales

7830 West Sahara Avenue | Las Vegas, NV 89117

Cell (702) 279-9111 | Fax (702) 410-2895

Brad.Malkin@GoSouthernFidelity.com | www.GoSouthernFidelity.com

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales Southern Fidelity Mortgage

Hi Everyone,

Just two short weeks later, the holiday’s are already a distant memory. The kids are back to school and most of us are again focused only on what we see right in front of us. If you haven’t set some goals for 2010, it would be a great time to jot them down on paper. If you have set them, it’s great to check on them at least bi monthly to make sure you’re on target, to revise them/make more relevant as needed, etc…. Hopefully we are all looking farther onto the horizon and adding value where and to whom we can.

The bond and mortgage markets did well last week with the benchmark 10 yr treasury yield falling to its key near term support at 3.60. Now that year end bonuses are settled, traders are back focused on reality and the sub par earnings, weak employment and weak retail sales. The outcome was a 470 point fall on the DJIA. The political defeat of a Democrat in one of the most democratic states in the country, and waffling in Washington politics as politicians stampeded to the center to adopt a populist stance; voters in Mass, Virginia and New Jersey have sent a clear message to Washington; be careful how you vote as we will be as well. One of the most surprising developments last week was the way the Senate is back-peddling the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for his second term. Greenspan, Paul Volker, Warren Buffett, most former Fed officials; and last but not least, investors want Bernanke confirmed but now politicians that are increasingly worried they too may be tossed on the unemployed rolls in November have weakened Bernanke support. It would be a huge mistake to change the head of the fed at this juncture but stranger things have happened and in the end, there is enough brain power and talent in Washington recognize this.

This week should be one of increased market volatility in the financial markets. The equity markets are likely headed lower but the action will be choppy with rallies and selling causing big swings in prices and sentiment. The week has $118B of Treasury auctions with 2 yr, 5 yr, and 7 yr note auctions that always generate concern; however, heavy selling in the stock markets will act as a counter balance to keep the interest rate markets in a tight range early this week. Lots of economic data this week to consider; existing and new home sales for Dec, two measurements of consumer sentiment, and the first look at Q4 GDP on the advance report on Friday (estimates are for GDP growth in the quarter to have increased 4.6%). The FOMC meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday and we will all be watching for any change in verbiage or policy (hoping for an extension of the fed program to buy mortgages keeping rates low for an extended period). Without confirmation, Bernanke’s term ends at the end of this month so the Senate will have to work fast (not one of their strong suits).

As always, our team is available to help in any way. We have several new/enhanced products and streamlined processes to add value to your business.

May 2010 bring only health and happiness to you and your family. I appreciate you.

My Best Regards,

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales

7830 West Sahara Avenue | Las Vegas, NV 89117
Cell (702) 279-9111 | Fax (702) 410-2895
Brad.Malkin@GoSouthernFidelity.com | www.GoSouthernFidelity.com