A surge in foreclosure filings suggests that the housing market is headed for the feared “double dip,” with some analysts predicting a further decline in Las Vegas home prices of up to 20 percent. Nevada continues to lead the nation with one in every 17 households receiving a foreclosure notice in the first half of the year, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac listing service reported.
The state was hit with 5,140 notices of default in June, 4,736 notices of trustee sale and 2,963 real estate-owned properties that have gone back to the bank for a total of 12,839 foreclosure filings. That brings the six-month total to 64,429 filings, down 6.2 percent from the year-ago period and down 13.2 percent from the second half of 2009….
…David Brownell of Keller Williams Realty in Las Vegas sees a fundamental shift in the local housing market as short sales catch up with and maybe surpass foreclosures. He counted 1,550 foreclosure sales in June, or 38 percent of total sales, compared with 1,403 short sales, or 34 percent of the total. That’s the closest they’ve ever been…(click here to continue reading…)
As I have before, I once again turn the stage over to Larry Murphy and Steve Bottfeld, of SalesTraq™.
Larry and Steve have done volumes of research on Las Vegas Real Estate and we are all wiser for their insights. If you would like to attend one of their Crystal Ball Seminars, visit this page;
Las Vegas April housing data is a mixed bag containing some good news, some great news and a little news that is less than attractive.
However, even as Las Vegas continues the positive trend found in the first quarter, the market cannot yet be called “in recovery.” But, that’s the direction the data suggests the market is moving.
In April, sales were strong, inventory fell slightly and prices remained relatively stable.
Here are the details:
SALES: While 480 new home sales may be nothing to sing about, that figure represents a 44% improvement over April last year. That’s an opera in our book.
In the first four months of the year, Las Vegas new home sales were 11.5% ahead of last year. The numbers may be small, but the upward trend continues.
Existing home sales fell slightly from last month (348 units to 4,323). However, that number is still 3.6% ahead of last April. And for the first four months of the year, existing home sales are 2.488 units or 18% ahead of last year. Strong sales are the first element in a recovery.
INVENTORY: As expected, the number of new home communities increased slightly to 236. That’s still 24.4% below last April. The number of subdivisions has been bouncing from 228 – 236 since last October. That suggests relative stability.
The number of new home permits in April was 474, a 41% increase over last April. That brings the total number of new home permits for the first four months of the year to 1,918, or just above 50% of the total for all of 2009.
MLS inventory continued its slow steady decline, slipping to a total of 9,400 units, the lowest total since July, 2004. At current sales rates, that represents just 2.7 months of supply for the market. That’s the second sign of recovery — a drop in inventory.
One sour note in the inventory symphony: the number of repossessed homes jumped to 2,146 in the month, the highest this year and nearly double the March total. There is a positive note to the negative. In January 2009, there were 15,624 REO units in inventory. In April 2010, the figure was down to 5,460. April was only the second in the last nine months where the number of foreclosures created exceeded the number of foreclosures sold.
PRICES: The new home market appeared stable and the existing home market shined in April.
After two consecutive months of increase, the median price of a new home fell slightly in April to $204,313. That’s just 5.4% below last April. The average price per square foot also fell slightly to $102.79, just 6.3% below last April.
Existing home prices rose to $126,000 – the highest point this year – and the highest level in 13 months. The average price per square foot jumped more than $2 to $81.61 – a 4% increase over last April.
The following table will give you some idea of why prices in the existing home sector may be rising slowly.
Note the difference between the short sale price and the REO sale price. Normally, they would be reversed. What that means is that larger homes are now being foreclosed. It means that we are well past the initial phase and are well into the second phase of foreclosures. That there weren’t more is a good sign.
When prices truly increase, that’s the sign of a true recovery.
Las Vegas is not there yet.
ABOUT THE FUTURE:
Nearly every pundit has told the world that the Las Vegas real estate market is dead … or if not dead is on life support. April figures suggest that Las Vegas may not be out of “sick bay” but will probably recover more quickly than people think.
Mostly Cloudy 
