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March may have come in like a lion in other areas of the country, but for the Las Vegas residential real estate world, it was like a lamb.

While Las Vegas’ March 13.3% unemployment may not be something to celebrate, it is the lowest mark since December 2009. The state reported a year over year employment increase for the first time in 39 months.

Unfortunately, first quarter residential housing statistics for the Las Vegas market contained little additional news that would suggest a recovery is imminent. Virtually every number that suggested change could be on the way was offset by a corresponding negative number.

For example, the number of existing home sales did jump (5.6%) to 5,114 in March, even as prices slid to their lowest totals in nearly two decades. But, significantly, more than seven out of ten of those sales were distressed properties. The 2,131 foreclosures sold at $106,500 represent 41.7% of the existing home sales. The 533 auction sales at $93,500 represent 10.4% of the sales. And, 929 short sales at $120,000 account for 18.2%. In short, existing home sales improvement was the product of distressed property. More than half were cash sales. Almost four out of five were vacant.

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New homes sales continued to lag behind last year. First quarter new home sales lagged last year by 41% at 781 total. The March tally of 279 sales was just 10 units above February and prices for new homes rose slightly to $195,950. (February was their lowest price point since 2002.)

While prices and sales are always major measures of a market’s potential, inventory is the most telling component. There were 2099 bank repossessions in March – the highest total since last April. Yet, the number of REO’s held by financial institutions continued its very slow decline, reaching its lowest point since last May (11,684).

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MLS inventory remained stable at 14,269 with roughly half of those homes listed as short sales. The number of new home subdivisions was also stable at 239, and the number of closings per subdivision averaged just over one per month.

Are these numbers likely to change? If so when, and what has to happen to make them change? Answers to those and other questions will be discussed at Crystal Ball this Thursday, April 21, at the Alexis Park Resort (375 E. Harmon). Speakers include Mayor Oscar Goodman, Frank Wyatt, president of the Southern Nevada Homebuilders Association and Larry Murphy, president of SalesTraq. There will be a question and answer period following the presentations.

You may pre-register for $29 on line at http://www.crystalballseminars.com/nev ($39 at the door) Each attendee will receive a complimentary copy of the SalesTraq Q1 Las Vegas Housing Summary, a $125 value.

Hope to see you there

Respectfully submitted,

Steve Bottfeld, Marketing Solutions

Larry Murphy, SalesTraq™

©SalesTraq 2011

First, REO inventory declined in January to just over 3,000 units after climbing each of the previous 10 months. And, as could be expected, REO pendings also increased by about the same amount as inventory declined. Short sale pendings increased—first time in 9 months. And finally, overall pendings increased—also for the first time in 9 months. Signs that sales activity is not declining, but may be gaining momentum. We shall see.

Second, REOs only makeup 19.79% of the available inventory in Las Vegas. Short sales still dominate the landscape with over 50% market share of the available inventory. As we have been reporting, inventory is very stable—only increased a few units from the previous month.

January Las Vegas real estate stats

Closed units were down from the same time last year, but only by 2%. Another good sign. We will truly begin to see the impact that the tax credit had on sales during the first half of last year as we compare it to these next few months of 2011.

January Las Vegas real estate Pie

January Las Vegas real estate graph

Finally, and as you may have seen in Hubble’s excellent article from earlier this week, cash transactions finally crossed the 50% of total sales mark. Cash sales make up more than all other types combined. Wow. What will these investors’ exit strategies do to the future recovery? Not much being said about that to this point. But, it will certainly have an impact on the timing of the turnaround and at what pace prices will climb once they begin doing so.

Have a great month!

David Brownell

Broker-Salesperson

A surge in foreclosure filings suggests that the housing market is headed for the feared “double dip,” with some analysts predicting a further decline in Las Vegas home prices of up to 20 percent. Nevada continues to lead the nation with one in every 17 households receiving a foreclosure notice in the first half of the year, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac listing service reported.
The state was hit with 5,140 notices of default in June, 4,736 notices of trustee sale and 2,963 real estate-owned properties that have gone back to the bank for a total of 12,839 foreclosure filings. That brings the six-month total to 64,429 filings, down 6.2 percent from the year-ago period and down 13.2 percent from the second half of 2009….

…David Brownell of Keller Williams Realty in Las Vegas sees a fundamental shift in the local housing market as short sales catch up with and maybe surpass foreclosures. He counted 1,550 foreclosure sales in June, or 38 percent of total sales, compared with 1,403 short sales, or 34 percent of the total. That’s the closest they’ve ever been…(click here to continue reading…)

Local home sales up, prices down

By HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

Existing-home sales in Las Vegas increased 4.5 percent in February and median prices fell 12.8 percent from the same month a year ago, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.

February’s 2,390 single-family home sales are “fairly solid” for what is traditionally a slow time of the year, Realtors association president Rick Shelton said Tuesday.

Nearly half of those sales were cash-only transactions, suggesting a return of heavy investor activity in Las Vegas. The median price was $135,694, up 0.6 percent from $134,925 the previous month….

(to finish reading click here; Las Vegas Review Journal; Las Vegas Real Estate )

Once again, by popular request, Larry Murphy and Steve Bottfeld offer their vast insight and expertise into the Las Vegas Real Estate Market. If you don’t yet subscribe to their site yet you really should, and if you haven’t yet attended one of their Crystal Ball seminars, you have missed a priceless real estate resource. Check it out; Crystal Ball seminars

January data suggests that Las Vegas’ new residential housing may have taken a slight step forward from last year.
—–>SALES: remained stable in the existing home sector;
—–>INVENTORY: continued to decline; and
—–>PRICES: remained relatively stable, with one critical new positive.
Beyond the $1.5 billion in aid for the five worst foreclosure states (including Nevada), one factor may help new home sales for the balance of 2010: New home sales exhibited the lowest average price per square foot in more than two years.

Here are the details:

SALES:

Existing home sales dropped by just over 1,000 units from the prior month.
While prices have languished between $120,000 and $125,000 since April 2009, for the first time since June, 2008, the number of bank-owned homes did NOT exceed the number of “regular” sales.

New homes started the New Year with a 9% jump over last January at 401. The figure was 61% less than December. Indeed, it was less than any figure in the last eleven months.

INVENTORY:

Existing home inventory increased 160 units in January to total 10,422. While that’s a 1.5% increase over December, it is a 47% decline from last year. More importantly, almost half that inventory (47%) is short-sale, another indication that banks are recognizing that short-sales result in smaller losses for them than foreclosures.

Banks repossessed 1,351 homes in January, about 43% less than last January. That figure puts them on pace for about 16,000 in 2010, less than what we saw in both 2008 and 2009. While these REO homes are selling, they are selling at bargain basement prices. That depresses pricing numbers.
If the REO figure continues at this level, it will keep existing home prices depressed at their current levels throughout the rest of this year.
The number of New Home Communities slipped to 229, one of the lowest totals since July 2007.
New home permits totaled 314. That’s a 72% increase over last January, but about average for monthly totals in 2009.

PRICE:

The median price of an existing home was $120,000 – about the same it has been since April of last year. However, 47% of the 3249 existing home closings this month were bank-owned homes with a median closing price of $115,000. The other 53% of existing home closings were non-bank owned homes with a median closing price of $125,000.

Bank-owned homes have colored pricing since June of 2008. The January numbers are the first indication that impact on pricing could be waning. But, as we have said so often before: one month does not make a trend.

The median price of a New Home was $201,515 – just 12.8% below last January and 9.7% below December.
The recent histories for both new and existing home suggest price stabilization. But, something else has occurred which could spur new home sales later this year.
The average price per square foot of a new home in January was $101.36 – the lowest level in more than two years. The average price per square foot of an existing home in January was $77.53 the highest level in more than three months.
The difference of $23.83 between the average price per square foot of a new and existing home is the smallest in nearly a year.
These numbers will be worth watching over the next few months.
We’ll have much more analysis on these numbers at our next Crystal Ball on April 21. Please save the date.

Respectfully submitted,
Larry Murphy Steve Bottfeld

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales Southern Fidelity Mortgage

Just two short weeks later, the holiday’s are already a distant memory. The kids are back to school and most of us are again focused only on what we see right in front of us. If you haven’t set some goals for 2010, it would be a great time to jot them down on paper. If you have set them, it’s great to check on them at least bi monthly to make sure you’re on target, to revise them/make more relevant as needed, etc…. Hopefully we are all looking farther onto the horizon and adding value where and to whom we can.

The bond and mortgage markets did well last week with the benchmark 10 yr treasury yield falling to its key near term support at 3.60. Now that year end bonuses are settled, traders are back focused on reality and the sub par earnings, weak employment and weak retail sales. The outcome was a 470 point fall on the DJIA. The political defeat of a Democrat in one of the most democratic states in the country, and waffling in Washington politics as politicians stampeded to the center to adopt a populist stance; voters in Mass, Virginia and New Jersey have sent a clear message to Washington; be careful how you vote as we will be as well. One of the most surprising developments last week was the way the Senate is back-peddling the confirmation of Ben Bernanke for his second term. Greenspan, Paul Volker, Warren Buffett, most former Fed officials; and last but not least, investors want Bernanke confirmed but now politicians that are increasingly worried they too may be tossed on the unemployed rolls in November have weakened Bernanke support. It would be a huge mistake to change the head of the fed at this juncture but stranger things have happened and in the end, there is enough brain power and talent in Washington recognize this.

This week should be one of increased market volatility in the financial markets. The equity markets are likely headed lower but the action will be choppy with rallies and selling causing big swings in prices and sentiment. The week has $118B of Treasury auctions with 2 yr, 5 yr, and 7 yr note auctions that always generate concern; however, heavy selling in the stock markets will act as a counter balance to keep the interest rate markets in a tight range early this week. Lots of economic data this week to consider; existing and new home sales for Dec, two measurements of consumer sentiment, and the first look at Q4 GDP on the advance report on Friday (estimates are for GDP growth in the quarter to have increased 4.6%). The FOMC meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday and we will all be watching for any change in verbiage or policy (hoping for an extension of the fed program to buy mortgages keeping rates low for an extended period). Without confirmation, Bernanke’s term ends at the end of this month so the Senate will have to work fast (not one of their strong suits).

As always, our team is available to help in any way. We have several new/enhanced products and streamlined processes to add value to your business.

May 2010 bring only health and happiness to you and your family. I appreciate you.

My Best Regards,

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales

7830 West Sahara Avenue | Las Vegas, NV 89117
Cell (702) 279-9111 | Fax (702) 410-2895
Brad.Malkin@GoSouthernFidelity.com | www.GoSouthernFidelity.com