A surge in foreclosure filings suggests that the housing market is headed for the feared “double dip,” with some analysts predicting a further decline in Las Vegas home prices of up to 20 percent. Nevada continues to lead the nation with one in every 17 households receiving a foreclosure notice in the first half of the year, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac listing service reported.
The state was hit with 5,140 notices of default in June, 4,736 notices of trustee sale and 2,963 real estate-owned properties that have gone back to the bank for a total of 12,839 foreclosure filings. That brings the six-month total to 64,429 filings, down 6.2 percent from the year-ago period and down 13.2 percent from the second half of 2009….
…David Brownell of Keller Williams Realty in Las Vegas sees a fundamental shift in the local housing market as short sales catch up with and maybe surpass foreclosures. He counted 1,550 foreclosure sales in June, or 38 percent of total sales, compared with 1,403 short sales, or 34 percent of the total. That’s the closest they’ve ever been…(click here to continue reading…)
Existing-home sales in Las Vegas increased 4.5 percent in February and median prices fell 12.8 percent from the same month a year ago, the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported.
February’s 2,390 single-family home sales are “fairly solid” for what is traditionally a slow time of the year, Realtors association president Rick Shelton said Tuesday.
Nearly half of those sales were cash-only transactions, suggesting a return of heavy investor activity in Las Vegas. The median price was $135,694, up 0.6 percent from $134,925 the previous month….
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January data suggests that Las Vegas’ new residential housing may have taken a slight step forward from last year.
—–>SALES: remained stable in the existing home sector;
—–>INVENTORY: continued to decline; and
—–>PRICES: remained relatively stable, with one critical new positive.
Beyond the $1.5 billion in aid for the five worst foreclosure states (including Nevada), one factor may help new home sales for the balance of 2010: New home sales exhibited the lowest average price per square foot in more than two years.
Here are the details:
SALES:
Existing home sales dropped by just over 1,000 units from the prior month.
While prices have languished between $120,000 and $125,000 since April 2009, for the first time since June, 2008, the number of bank-owned homes did NOT exceed the number of “regular” sales.
New homes started the New Year with a 9% jump over last January at 401. The figure was 61% less than December. Indeed, it was less than any figure in the last eleven months.
INVENTORY:
Existing home inventory increased 160 units in January to total 10,422. While that’s a 1.5% increase over December, it is a 47% decline from last year. More importantly, almost half that inventory (47%) is short-sale, another indication that banks are recognizing that short-sales result in smaller losses for them than foreclosures.
Banks repossessed 1,351 homes in January, about 43% less than last January. That figure puts them on pace for about 16,000 in 2010, less than what we saw in both 2008 and 2009. While these REO homes are selling, they are selling at bargain basement prices. That depresses pricing numbers.
If the REO figure continues at this level, it will keep existing home prices depressed at their current levels throughout the rest of this year.
The number of New Home Communities slipped to 229, one of the lowest totals since July 2007.
New home permits totaled 314. That’s a 72% increase over last January, but about average for monthly totals in 2009.
PRICE:
The median price of an existing home was $120,000 – about the same it has been since April of last year. However, 47% of the 3249 existing home closings this month were bank-owned homes with a median closing price of $115,000. The other 53% of existing home closings were non-bank owned homes with a median closing price of $125,000.
Bank-owned homes have colored pricing since June of 2008. The January numbers are the first indication that impact on pricing could be waning. But, as we have said so often before: one month does not make a trend.
The median price of a New Home was $201,515 – just 12.8% below last January and 9.7% below December.
The recent histories for both new and existing home suggest price stabilization. But, something else has occurred which could spur new home sales later this year.
The average price per square foot of a new home in January was $101.36 – the lowest level in more than two years. The average price per square foot of an existing home in January was $77.53 the highest level in more than three months.
The difference of $23.83 between the average price per square foot of a new and existing home is the smallest in nearly a year.
These numbers will be worth watching over the next few months.
We’ll have much more analysis on these numbers at our next Crystal Ball on April 21. Please save the date.
Respectfully submitted,
Larry Murphy Steve Bottfeld
Mostly Cloudy 
