A surge in foreclosure filings suggests that the housing market is headed for the feared “double dip,” with some analysts predicting a further decline in Las Vegas home prices of up to 20 percent. Nevada continues to lead the nation with one in every 17 households receiving a foreclosure notice in the first half of the year, Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac listing service reported.
The state was hit with 5,140 notices of default in June, 4,736 notices of trustee sale and 2,963 real estate-owned properties that have gone back to the bank for a total of 12,839 foreclosure filings. That brings the six-month total to 64,429 filings, down 6.2 percent from the year-ago period and down 13.2 percent from the second half of 2009….

…David Brownell of Keller Williams Realty in Las Vegas sees a fundamental shift in the local housing market as short sales catch up with and maybe surpass foreclosures. He counted 1,550 foreclosure sales in June, or 38 percent of total sales, compared with 1,403 short sales, or 34 percent of the total. That’s the closest they’ve ever been…(click here to continue reading…)

Las Vegas Event Guide

We’ll see you soon!

Two key factors should have severely damaged May housing statistics for Las Vegas.
— First, Nevada had the highest unemployment in the nation.
— Second was the withdrawal of Federal funding for first time buyers at the end of April.

Surprisingly, the negative impact was much gentler than expected.

And concentrating only on those two statistics would make us overlook another factor – perhaps a more important factor: Las Vegas may have entered the second phase of its foreclosure crisis … and thus far it appears less damaging than it might have been.

Based on the first two factors, virtually all of the pundits suggested that prices would drop significantly in May. They were only partially correct. Virtually all of the market watchers predicted that inventory would expand exponentially in May. They were wrong.

And almost everyone predicted sales would drop like a rock in May. They were wrong again. And, nearly all of the naysayers were wrong about the level of foreclosures for May as well.

That’s not to say that May was a good month. We’re merely pointing out that it could have been far worse, particularly in view of what we have dubbed “the second phase of the foreclosure crisis.”

Here are the details:

SALES: Both new homes and existing home sales remained strong.

New home sales chugged along at a 515 per month clip – about 2.26 sales per subdivision. While 515 may not be a number to sing about, the sales rate per subdivision is like having the Beatles over for dinner. It’s the second highest rate in two years. And, it could be a strong indication that new home builders have discovered a formula that works – smaller homes at smaller prices.

The average sized home sold in the month was 1,852 square feet.

While the 4,186 existing home closings total was not as strong as last month (4,323), the numbers continue to exceed 4,000 – the third consecutive month in which that total has been exceeded. Perhaps more importantly, existing home sales are 12% above last year for the first five months.

INVENTORY: While new home inventory and the number of foreclosures declined, the number of available listings on the MLS increased for the first time in six months. New home permits dropped to 410 (from 474 last month).

MLS inventory increased to 10,176 from 9,400 last month. Still, at current sales rates that represents less than a 2.7 month supply … and the definition of a “hot market” is one in which there is less than a 90 day supply.

The number of new home subdivisions slipped to 228, tied for the lowest number in this century.

A total of 1,688 foreclosures impacted the market in May. That’s almost 500 less than April. For the first five months of the year, the foreclosure total is more than 20% below last year’s numbers. And, this may herald an important change in the market.

PRICES: Both new home and resale prices slipped in May.

New home prices fell 11% from last month to $193,278 – the lowest price since June 2003. However, price per square foot actually rose to $104.33, second highest this year. One conclusion to be drawn from those two statistics is – as we previously pointed out – builders are building smaller homes.

Resale prices slipped slightly to $122,847. Resale prices have been bumping along between $116,000 and $126,000 for more than 14 months.

How did prices “break out?”

SHORT SALES                  941 $120,000
AUCTION SALES           437 $102,000
REO SALES                    1500 $122,000
NON-DISTRESSED      1308 $131,000

Note that REO sales are priced higher than short sales (for the second consecutive month). While two months does not make a trend, we believe this probably means that we are now in the second phase of the foreclosure problem.

The first phase was created by those “investors” who well overpaid for housing product and by cheap mortgages lacking SEC oversight.

These new figures indicate that we may be taking a first look at people who can’t pay their mortgages because they’ve lost their jobs or had medical problems. June figures will be more revealing.

In any event, we appear to be ooking at higher priced homes going into foreclosure. Ultimately, this will lead to higher prices in Las Vegas. And, that’s not as good as it sounds.

It’s not pleasant, but May was not as bad as we thought it might be. And, we still have the rest of the year to anticipate.

Respectfully submitted,
Larry Murphy / Steve Bottfeld
Crystal Ball Seminars SalesTraq Marketing Solutions
© SalesTraq

Las Vegas Real Estate May Numbers

A vital and thriving market has returned to Las Vegas. Prices have flattened and in many communities started back up. Foreclosures are fading into the background as banks find better and more cost-efficient ways to handle these liabilities. Short-Sales rise 2 and 3 times last year’s volumes and deals are getting done.

The numbers are encouraging. By many indicators Las Vegas real estate hit bottom late last year and now seems to be headed back up.

Larry and Steve have done volumes of research on Las Vegas Real Estate and we are all wiser for their insights. If you would like to attend one of their Crystal Ball Seminars, visit this page;

Crystal Ball Seminars

Good morning,

Las Vegas April housing data is a mixed bag containing some good news, some great news and a little news that is less than attractive.

However, even as Las Vegas continues the positive trend found in the first quarter, the market cannot yet be called “in recovery.” But, that’s the direction the data suggests the market is moving.

In April, sales were strong, inventory fell slightly and prices remained relatively stable.

Here are the details:

SALES: While 480 new home sales may be nothing to sing about, that figure represents a 44% improvement over April last year. That’s an opera in our book.

In the first four months of the year, Las Vegas new home sales were 11.5% ahead of last year. The numbers may be small, but the upward trend continues.

Existing home sales fell slightly from last month (348 units to 4,323). However, that number is still 3.6% ahead of last April. And for the first four months of the year, existing home sales are 2.488 units or 18% ahead of last year. Strong sales are the first element in a recovery.

INVENTORY: As expected, the number of new home communities increased slightly to 236. That’s still 24.4% below last April. The number of subdivisions has been bouncing from 228 – 236 since last October. That suggests relative stability.

The number of new home permits in April was 474, a 41% increase over last April. That brings the total number of new home permits for the first four months of the year to 1,918, or just above 50% of the total for all of 2009.

MLS inventory continued its slow steady decline, slipping to a total of 9,400 units, the lowest total since July, 2004. At current sales rates, that represents just 2.7 months of supply for the market. That’s the second sign of recovery — a drop in inventory.

One sour note in the inventory symphony: the number of repossessed homes jumped to 2,146 in the month, the highest this year and nearly double the March total. There is a positive note to the negative. In January 2009, there were 15,624 REO units in inventory. In April 2010, the figure was down to 5,460. April was only the second in the last nine months where the number of foreclosures created exceeded the number of foreclosures sold.

PRICES: The new home market appeared stable and the existing home market shined in April.

After two consecutive months of increase, the median price of a new home fell slightly in April to $204,313. That’s just 5.4% below last April. The average price per square foot also fell slightly to $102.79, just 6.3% below last April.

Existing home prices rose to $126,000 – the highest point this year – and the highest level in 13 months. The average price per square foot jumped more than $2 to $81.61 – a 4% increase over last April.

The following table will give you some idea of why prices in the existing home sector may be rising slowly.

SHORT SALES: 969, $122,000
AUCTION SALES 335, $93,000
REO SALES 1,636, $125,000
NON-DISTRESSED 1,383, $135,000

Note the difference between the short sale price and the REO sale price. Normally, they would be reversed. What that means is that larger homes are now being foreclosed. It means that we are well past the initial phase and are well into the second phase of foreclosures. That there weren’t more is a good sign.

When prices truly increase, that’s the sign of a true recovery.

Las Vegas is not there yet.

ABOUT THE FUTURE:

Nearly every pundit has told the world that the Las Vegas real estate market is dead … or if not dead is on life support. April figures suggest that Las Vegas may not be out of “sick bay” but will probably recover more quickly than people think.

Respectfully submitted,

Larry Murphy, SalesTraq™

Steve Bottfeld, Marketing Solutions

Tons of great numbers this month.

REO inventory down 65% from last year this time; and it is only 17% of the total inventory compared to 33% last year at this time—cut in half. And REO closings are down nearly 50%. REOs were over 80% of the closed units last year at this time, and now they are only 44%.

Short sale inventory down 37% from last year this time; but short sale pending are up 200% and short sale closings are up 214%–short sales are 27% of the closed units last month, compared to 6.42% last year this time. Short sale closings continue to climb at around 2% every month (of the closed inventory)…..at this pace, and at the pace REO closings are decreasing, short sales will surpass REOs as the largest segment of closed units well before the end of the year.

A number that is not reflected in my closed units (since they are only pulled from MLS/GLVAR numbers) are the sales occurring to third parties on the steps of the Nevada Legal News (the so-called “courthouse”). Last month, there were 563 sales to third parties. I have noticed these numbers showing up in other reports of monthly closed units. One concern I have with adding this total to the other closed units number is that many of these sales end up on the MLS as “flips” very quickly. Reporting all of these as like sales may skew the numbers by as much as 10%. This is something to watch in the coming months.

I wish I had time to track how many of these third party sales end up as “flips” (sold again within 90-180 days), and how many are held as longer term acquisitions. That would give a much better reflection of closed unit numbers.

Two new numbers are going to be added to my monthly reports—new listings added in the month and new escrows added in the month. I believe these will give some greater depth to the analysis of market trends. In April, there were 2,941 new listings added and 2,575 new escrows added. After a few months of following these numbers, I will be able to provide additional insight to market trends.

Warm regards,

David Brownell
Broker-Salesperson
Keller Williams Realty Las Vegas

From Wikipedia

Las Vegas Strip
The Strip
Las Vegas Boulevard South
Length: 3.8 mi (6.1 km)
South end: Russell Road
North end: Sahara Avenue
Nevada highways

The Las Vegas Strip is an approximately 3.8-mile stretch of Las Vegas Boulevard South in Clark County, Nevada. The Strip lies in the unincorporated areas of Paradise and Winchester. Most of “the Strip” has been designated an All-American Road. Many of the largest hotel, casino and resort properties in the world are located on the world famous Las Vegas Strip. Nineteen of the world’s 25 largest hotels by room count are on the Strip, with a total of over 67,000 rooms. One of the 19, the Las Vegas Hilton, is an “off-Strip” property but is located less than 0.5 miles (0.80 km) east of the Strip.

Several decades ago, Las Vegas Boulevard South was called Arrowhead Highway, or Los Angeles Highway. The Strip was reportedly named by Los Angeles police officer Guy McAfee, after his hometown’s Sunset Strip.

One of the most visible aspects of Las Vegas’ cityscape is its use of dramatic architecture. The modernization of hotels, casinos, restaurants, and residential high-rises on the Strip has established the city as one of the most popular destinations for tourists….

Here is an excerpt from guest author Brad Malkin, briefly discussing several key points in the Market;

Last Week; a slight increase in long term interest rates, but the larger jump in rates was at the short to middle of the curve. In the wider perspective the rate markets are relatively calm, the drivers last week were the continuing concerns over sovereign debt problem in Greece and concerns other European countries may suffer the same fate, having to cut spending more than possible to avoid defaulting on its debt payments. Not just Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal and Italy are struggling with the same problems; so far however they haven’t slid to the level of Greece’s debts. The EU and IMF eventually will step up and keep Greece from defaulting but the path to there from here is filled with daily fears that keep investors worried. Last week the housing data was for March surprised, especially new home sales that jumped 27% with upward revisions for Jan and Feb; the homebuyers tax credit driving buyers to new homes and less to existing homes which were still strong at +6.8%.

This week; two points to focus on. Starting Monday afternoon Treasury will be busy borrowing; $11B 5 yr inflation indexed notes will be auctioned on Monday. Treasury will hit the borrowing window Tuesday with $44B of 2 yr notes, Wednesday for $42B of 5 yr notes and Thursday $32B of 7 yr notes. The borrowing is expected to be well bid by investors but will keep a lid on any rallies in the treasury markets until at least mid-week after the demand for the early auctions are measured. The other key focus this week; the FOMC meeting beginning on Tuesday and concluding Wednesday afternoon with that policy statement that is sliced and diced for clues as to its meaning for future rates. One discussion will center on the Fed’s balance sheet that has ballooned to over $2T; there were a number of FOMC and Fed officials past and present that want the Fed to begin selling those assets, key to the asset sales is the $1.25T of MBSs the Fed bought in the past year. Although we do not expect the Fed would sell MBSs at amounts that would drive mortgage rates higher, how the debate goes will be interesting; problem is we won’t know much about it until the FOMC minutes are released in three weeks. Rate markets this week will likely be under a little pressure all week with supply and continual improvement in the equity markets.

Brad Malkin | Vice President of Sales

7830 West Sahara Avenue | Las Vegas, NV 89117

Cell (702) 279-9111 | Fax (702) 410-2895

Brad.Malkin@GoSouthernFidelity.com | www.GoSouthernFidelity.com

Unfazed By Numbers, Analyst Forecasts Fewer Foreclosures

LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

By HUBBLE SMITH

The statistics are stacked against Las Vegas: highest foreclosure rate in the nation, 80 percent of homeowners “underwater” on their mortgage, half of homes with 25 percent or more negative equity, 16 percent of homeowners delinquent on their mortgage, 13.8 percent unemployment.

Nevertheless housing analyst Larry Murphy said Thursday he seriously doubts the market will be flooded with the “shadow inventory” of foreclosures at the end of the year…. (Keep Reading)

Apr. 06, 2010
Copyright © Las Vegas Review-Journal

Government’s Short-Sale Aid Implemented

HAFA meant to limit foreclosures

By HUBBLE SMITH
LAS VEGAS REVIEW-JOURNAL

A government program that went into effect Monday is expected to speed up the short-sale process and prevent lenders from filing deficiency judgments against home sellers, a move that could go a long way toward mitigating the foreclosure crisis in Las Vegas, real estate industry sources said.

The Home Affordable Foreclosure Alternatives, part of the Obama administration’s $75 billion Making Homes Affordable program, sets guidelines that would streamline the process and provide incentives to both borrowers and lenders to avoid foreclosure.

David Brownell of Keller Williams Realty reported “4,823 short-sale listings in February, or nearly 48 percent of the total inventory, compared with 35 percent in the same month a year ago. There were 694 short sales during the month, nearly one-fourth of the 2,957 total sales. That’s up from 8 percent a year ago. More than 10,000 short sales are pending, or waiting for approval”, he said. (read Government’s short-sale aid implemented here)