What’s That Sound? Opportunity Knocking…
Anybody can crunch numbers and produce a result. The key is understanding what your results mean and then, requiring an even deeper understanding, acting on your results in the most productive way possible. Here in Las vegas we have two market gurus, a couple of real estate Nostradamus’, so to speak. Larry Murphy , and his colleague, Steve Bottfeld, of SalesTraq Inc. have for years now been producing numbers and interpretations of those numbers that have been right on the money. Larry & Steve chart the entire market and how all the different factors interact with each other and what it all means, and publishes all their insight in a monthly newsletter called FAST FACTS
This morning the numbers for July were posted and wow! They are both encouraging and profoundly interesting. Here are a few highlights:
EXISTING HOME MARKET: The total of 3,173 existing home sales in July was the highest total in any month since September 2006. July inventory edged up slightly (0.4%) from last month to 20,641.
Over the last three months, Las Vegas has averaged 2,624 closings per month. Average inventory over the same period was 20,589. Those last two statistics yield a third: there is about 7.9 months of inventory in the resale market.
More than three out of five (61%) of July existing home sales were bank owned homes with a median closing price of $193,000. The other 39% were non-bank owned homes with a median price of $235,000, yielding a blended median price of just $210,000.
But then we move on to the Foreclosure market, which is causing the most disruption all across the country right now…
According to them;
The number of foreclosures edged up in July to 2,281, an 8.4% increase over June.
—–>Perhaps overlooked in all these numbers is a simple
fact: The total number of foreclosed homes purchased
was about 85% of the number of new foreclosures.
In effect, this means that the market is nearing the point at which foreclosure absorption exceeds foreclosure creation. That is one benchmark for a market in recovery.
Las Vegas no longer leads the nation in foreclosures. In RealtyTrac’s June report, the Cape Coral-Fort Myers area in Florida was the metro area with the highest rate of foreclosure. It was followed by three California cities: Merced, Stockton, and Modesto. Las Vegas ranked fifth.
In June, foreclosures were up 8% nationally over the previous month. Las Vegas’ foreclosure rate dropped.
Examining these foreclosure statistics does not suggest the situation will get better quickly. Yet, they strongly indicate Las Vegas is on the “mend.” Assuming we get through the next two subprime mortgage “reset” months with reasonable results, the Las Vegas resale market could be in full recovery before the end of the year. Certainly, its sales totals will exceed those of 2007.
As I have stated previously on this blog, Las Vegas is in a unique position to recover before the rest of the country. Take a drive down the Strip and be AMAZED at all the construction cranes perched high over-head. Yes, there have been some building projects delayed, but Vegas is still growing, our population is still swelling.
Once again Steve and Larry looked into the past to discover which path we will all be taking into the future. If you want to dig deeper on your own, or attend a Crystal Ball seminar, visit this site; www.crystalballseminars.com The next one is scheduled for October 23rd and is titled entitled “Getting through Hard Times: Coping with Adversity.” Guest speakers will include: (1) Fred Chin, President, Lake Las Vegas Resort; (2) Mark Stark, President of Prudential Realty; (3) and Mary Connelly, President of William Lyon Homes (tentatively confirmed).
David.
