There are a staggering amount of statistics available for Las Vegas real estate. What do they all MEAN?

The key is understanding your results and then, requiring an even deeper understanding, acting on your results in the most productive way possible. Here in Las vegas we have two market gurus, a couple of real estate Nostradamus’, so to speak. Larry Murphy , and his colleague, Steve Bottfeld, of SalesTraq Inc. have for years now been producing numbers and interpretations of those numbers that have been right on the money. Larry & Steve chart the entire market and how all the different factors interact with each other and what it all means, and publishes all their insight in a monthly newsletter called FAST FACTS. Here is what they have to say about September’s statistics;

September’s housing statistics for Las Vegas are like a Halloween costume. We can’t quite tell what’s behind the mask.

What complicates our vision is that this data was developed just as economic news regarding the bailout and the further misadventures of such firms as AIG, Lehman Brothers hit the public consciousness … and the Las Vegas real estate market.

Certainly, as the US is battered by an economic system undergoing a frightening metamorphosis, people look for signs that something good may be happening. September housing statistics for Las Vegas provides some good news and the bad news that was expected.

—–>GOOD NEWS: Inventory is down and sales are up. But, the numbers may not be painting a realistic picture.

—–>BAD NEWS: Prices continue to fall, but considerably less precipitously than the first half of the year.

INVENTORY: Existing home inventory increased just about 250 units in the month, remaining under 21,000, which at today’s absorption rate equates to just a 7 month supply

The number of new home subdivisions slid to 407, the lowest total since April 2005. Just 15 months ago, there were 579 active new home subdivisions in Las Vegas.

New home permits remained in triple digits, at just 440. We expect a little more than 6,000 new home permits for the market this year. Given that population increase suggests a need for about 25,000 new homes, that’s very good news.

—–>The number of actual foreclosures in September –2,272– decreased 20% in September from August’s record high 2839

As I have stated previously on this blog, Las Vegas is in a unique position to recover before the rest of the country. Take a drive down the Strip and be AMAZED at all the construction cranes perched high over-head. Yes, there have been some building projects delayed, but Vegas is still growing, our population is still swelling. Let’s read on….

But, that’s not the whole picture. One statistic needs to be underscored: financial institutions own 14,636 Las Vegas homes. That may not show in today’s inventory … but it is certainly inventory this market will have to deal with in the near future.

SALES: The good news is that sales for both existing and new homes increased in September over August.

The total of 961 new home sales in September was a 21.3% improvement over August. Existing home sales reached 3,199 - the 9th consecutive monthly increase.

—–>More than three out of five existing home sales (62%) were bank owned homes.

The number of foreclosed homes purchased was 87.3% of the number of homes foreclosed. We believe the foreclosure bottom will be reached in that month in which the number of foreclosure sales exceeds the number of foreclosure creations. Hopefully, that will occur sometime in 2009.

PRICES: The median price of an existing home slid $13,500 from August to September to reach $186,500 - the lowest median price since January 2004.

—–>Bank owned homes sold at a median price of $175,500. The median price of a non-bank owned home was $206,000.

The median price of all new homes was $252,971 - 19.7% below last year. That statistic includes mid-rise and hi-rise. When we look at new single family and condominium, the median price slips to $249,600. That’s 18.9% below last year.

An Overlooked Positive: That last figure has slid less than $10,000 since April.

It is no secret that we’re going through hard times. Coping with real estate adversity is the theme of our next Crystal Ball Seminar, to be held this Thursday at Texas Station.

Speakers include Tom McCormick, president of Astoria Homes, Mary Connelly, President of William Lyon Homes, Frederick Chin, president of Atalon and Lake Las Vegas; and Mark Stark, president of Prudential Americana.

To register, go to www.crystalballseminars.com

Once again Steve and Larry looked into the past to discover which path we will all be taking into the future. If you want to dig deeper on your own, or attend a Crystal Ball seminar, visit this site; www.crystalballseminars.com

David

What an amazing time in American economic history. We are learning painful lessons, lessons which an older generation tried to warn us about, and we are gaining wisdom for our pain.

The stock market BOUNCED back today with the single largest one day point gain ever. Ever. What a wild ride.

In the last month I have heard every opinion that can be spoken. Everybody has a different take on what will happen next. Who knows? But one thing I know with certainty; America always rises in a crisis. We get the job done. It may not be easy, it may not be fun. It may be completely unpleasant. But if it MUST be done, Americans will do it.

So soon all the plans that all the worlds’ governments are putting into place will begin to take affect. Credit will ease and soon the economy will pick-up. House prices will stabilize and eventually head back up and before too long interest rates will start to head back up too. Before that happens, if you are considering buying a house, I strongly urge you to act now.

Remember I and my team can answer any questions you have.

Some day we will all look back on this time in our lives and marvel at the economic opportunities that presented themselves during these wild days.

David